July 6th, 2018 1:27 PM by T. Fanning
Last Updated: 7/6/18Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory following mixed results in this morning's major economic release. Stocks are having a somewhat muted and mixed reaction to the data with the Dow down 16 points and the Nasdaq up 38 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (2.81%), which should improve this morning's rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.Yesterday's afternoon release of the FOMC minutes didn't reveal any major surprises but did show concerns about the impact trade tariffs may have on the economy in the future. There was not enough concern to alter their plans for raising key short-term interest rates though. The release had little impact on the bond market and yesterday afternoon's mortgage pricing. We saw no reaction in rates after the minutes were posted.This morning's big news was June's Employment numbers at 8:30 AM ET. They showed that the unemployment rate moved up to 4.0% from May's 3.8%, that 213,000 new jobs were added to the economy and average earnings rose 0.2%. The unemployment rate was expected to remain at 3.8%, theoretically making that reading good news for mortgage rates. The average earnings came in below the 0.3% increase that was forecasted, which is also favorable for bonds and mortgage pricing.The biggest headline number in the report is the number of jobs added or lost during the month. The 213,000 that was added last month was a bit stronger than the 192,000 that was expected. It wasn't a huge variance, but was still higher than forecasts. Also worth noting, May and April's payroll numbers were revised upward for a combined 37,000 more jobs added than previously thought. Because those numbers point towards growth in the employment sector, they are considered to be bad news for mortgage rates. Fortunately, the mixed results in the report have neutralized any significant impact on this morning's trading.Next week has a few pieces of relevant economic data that we will be watching in addition to a couple of Treasury auctions that are known to influence mortgage rates. All of the week's events that are expected to affect mortgage rates come during the middle and latter days. Monday has nothing of importance scheduled. Look for details on next week's calendar in Sunday evening's weekly preview.If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.**http://www.hlmcolorado.com/DailyRateAdvisory
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