July 18th, 2025 1:34 PM by T. Fanning
Hope your day’s going smoothly!
Last week, U.S. markets hit record highs as strong earnings, solid retail sales, and falling jobless claims boosted confidence. Consumer sentiment ticked up, banks reported healthy profits, and inflation pressures eased slightly. Despite this strength, investors still see a decent chance of a Fed rate cut later this year, though strong data may delay it. Tariff concerns remain a risk for future inflation.
Interest rates edged higher, finishing the week with a modest increase.
Next week’s schedule is much lighter, with only a few economic reports coming out—and none are as important as this week’s data. A midweek Treasury auction might affect afternoon trading for a day. On Monday, the Leading Economic Indicators report is released, which carries some importance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks Tuesday at a banking event in D.C., but since it’s during the Fed’s quiet period before their next meeting, he’s not expected to say anything that would impact mortgage rates.
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Last Updated: 7/18/25
Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory following somewhat favorable economic data. Stocks are mixed with the Dow down 115 points and the Nasdaq up 26 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (4.43). This should offset slight weakness from late yesterday to keep this morning's mortgage rates close to Thursday's early pricing.
June's Housing Starts report was posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning, revealing a 4.6% jump in new home groundbreakings. A secondary reading that tracks newly issued permits that are needed before future starts rose 0.2%. Both were stronger than expected. However, the increase in overall starts was fueled by multi-family projects such as apartments and condos. Single-family groundbreakings, which are much more relevant to the bond market and mortgage rates, fell by the same 4.6% last month. This is a sign of weakness in the relevant portion of the housing sector, allowing us to label the report favorable for mortgage pricing.
The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment closed this week's packed economic calendar. They announced the preliminary reading for July stood at 61.8, up from May's final reading of 60.7. The increase means surveyed consumers feel better about their own financial and employment situations than they did last month and are likely to spend more. While the headline number is bad news for rates, a secondary reading that reflects opinions about inflation in the future came in lower than expected. The two readings seem to offset each other, preventing them from having an impact on this morning's rates.
Next week's calendar is much lighter than this week with a small handful of relevant economic reports scheduled for release, none of which are nearly as important or considered to be key as some of this week's data was. There is also a Treasury auction midweek that may come into play during afternoon trading one day. The week starts with the release of the moderately important Leading Economic Indicators late Monday morning. Fed Chairman Powell has a speaking engagement Tuesday at a banking conference in Washington DC, but because this falls within the Fed's pre-FOMC quiet period it is highly unlikely he will say anything that is relevant to mortgage rates. Look for details on all of next week's scheduled activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
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