The Home Loan Mortgage Blog



Hi,

Rates ended the week again on a higher note. This makes three straight weeks of small increases. Next week has little economic data or other scheduled events that are expected to affect mortgage rates other than a couple of housing-related reports. Monday has nothing scheduled that we need to be concerned with, so look for weekend news to have the biggest impact on mortgage rates.*

We offer Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo and regular construction financing. Some of our niches include: FHA and VA 1x Close Construction-Perm; 1% Down Conventional Program; 1.50% Down FHA Advantage Program; CHFA Financing; Down Payment Protection program; HomeStyle renovation program; and a jumbo, 5% down program. We also can do hobby farms, Ag properties and Alt-A (stated income, verified assets for self-employed borrowers)! To see a detailed list of programs, visit our website:  www.hlmcolorado.com/mortgageprograms

As always, please let me know if I can help you/friends/family/potential buyers/borrowers!
                  

Last Updated: 9/14/18

Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory following mixed results in today's economic data. The major stock indexes are flat for the most part with the Dow up 1 point and the Nasdaq up 12 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32 (2.99%), which should push this morning's mortgage rates higher by slightly less than .125 of a discount point over Thursday's morning pricing.

Yesterday's 30-year Treasury Bond auction went fairly well but demand was not as strong as what Wednesday's 10-year Note auction drew. It was not strong enough to cause much of a reaction in the bond market. Accordingly, the sale had no impact on yesterday's afternoon mortgage pricing.

August's Retail Sales report was posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning as the first of today's three economic releases. The Commerce Department announced a 0.1% increase in retail-level sales, falling short of expectations. Forecasts were calling for a 0.4% rise in sales. Even a secondary reading that excludes more costly and volatile auto sales transactions came in lighter than expected. This indicates that consumers spent less last month than many had thought. Because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of our economy and bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, today's report can be considered favorable news for mortgage rates.

The second release of the morning came at 9:15 AM ET when August's Industrial Production report was posted. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It showed a 0.4% rise in output, matching predictions. The increase in production is technically not good news for bonds and mortgage rates, but because it showed no surprise we can consider it neutral for rates.

The final release of the week was the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM ET. They announced a surprising reading of 100.8, greatly exceeding forecasts of 97.0 and up from August's 96.2. The spike means surveyed consumers were much more optimistic about their own financial and employment situations than nearly everyone had thought. That is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because rising confidence usually translates into stronger levels of consumers spending that fuels economic growth.

This morning's move in bonds is concerning yet also brought some relief, at least temporarily. Overnight weakness carried into this morning's trading, pushing the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield to 3.00%. That is the concerning part because a sustained break above it could lead to a noticeable upward trend in mortgage rates. The relief came in the fact that when it reached 3.00%, buyers came in to support it, pushing the yield back down to 2.99%. That in itself shows there's still strong resistance at 3.00%. As we have seen the last several times this level has been tested, this could be just the high end of the range being tested before moving lower. Since mortgage rates tend to track bond yields, the translation is that if we stayed below 3.00% we should see some improvements to mortgage rates in the near future.

Next week has little economic data or other scheduled events that are expected to affect mortgage rates other than a couple of housing-related reports. Monday has nothing scheduled that we need to be concerned with, so look for weekend news to have the biggest impact on mortgage rates. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....

Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...
Float if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...
Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...
Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.*

*http://www.hlmcolorado.com/DailyRateAdvisory




LO NMLS: 208694 | CO License: 100008854 | Company NMLS ID: 479289
Regulated by the Colorado Division of Real Estate
www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org
Posted in:General
Posted by T. Fanning on September 14th, 2018 1:02 PM


Hi, I hope you've had a good week!

Rates ended the week slightly higher. Next week starts off light with nothing of importance scheduled Monday or Tuesday, but gets real active as the week progresses. We have two very relevant inflation readings and an important report on consumer spending along with a couple of Treasury auctions that are known to influence rates in addition to the Fed Beige Book and some other data.*

We offer Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo and regular construction financing. Some of our niches include: FHA and VA 1x Close Construction-Perm; 1% Down Conventional Program; 1.50% Down FHA Advantage Program; CHFA Financing; Down Payment Protection program; HomeStyle renovation program; and a jumbo, 5% down program. We also can do hobby farms, Ag properties and Alt-A (stated income, verified assets for self-employed borrowers)! To see a detailed list of programs, visit our website:  www.hlmcolorado.com/mortgageprograms

As always, please let me know if I can help you/friends/family/potential buyers/borrowers!
          

Last Updated: 9/7/18

Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory following stronger than expected employment data. Stocks are mixed with the Dow down 70 points and the Nasdaq up 13 points. The bond market is currently down 18/32 (2.94%), which should push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point if comparing to Thursday's early pricing.

Today's big economic news was the release of August's Employment report. This report gives us several important readings that gauge strength of the employment sector. Unfortunately, we cannot consider any of them favorable in this release. The first headline number was the unemployment rate, coming in at 3.9%. This was unchanged from July's level as was expected. The second is the number of jobs added to the economy during the month, or the payroll number. It showed that 201,000 new jobs were added last month, exceeding forecasts of 190,000. There was a downward revision to July's payroll number that was lowered by 10,000. These two readings aren't exactly favorable for the bond market, but they aren't really the cause of this morning's bond selling either.

Causing concern in the markets today was the third headline number- average hourly earnings. It was expected to rise 0.2%, keeping the annual pace under a key threshold of 2.8%. However, August's earnings rose 0.4%, pushing the annual rate to 2.9%. This is a pretty strong inflation red-flag that solidifies the likelihood of the Fed raising key short-term interest rates two more times before the end of the year. These results all but guarantees a quarter-point move during the FOMC meeting that will take place later this month and unless there is a significant change over the next two months, another move is expected at December's meeting.

Today's data is clearly bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates. The initial reaction has the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield back above an important resistance level of 2.90%. It will be interesting to see if we close above that level or if buyers come into the market before the end of the day to bring it back below. Either way, the bond market is concerned about inflation currently and we can expect additional data in the coming weeks to heavily influence trading.

Next week starts off light with nothing of importance scheduled Monday or Tuesday, but gets real active as the week progresses. We have two very relevant inflation readings and an important report on consumer spending along with a couple of Treasury auctions that are known to influence rates in addition to the Fed Beige Book and some other data. Look for details on next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....

Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...
Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...
Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...
Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.*

*http://www.hlmcolorado.com/DailyRateAdvisory




LO NMLS: 208694 | CO License: 100008854 | Company NMLS ID: 479289
Regulated by the Colorado Division of Real Estate
www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org
Posted in:General
Posted by T. Fanning on September 7th, 2018 8:10 AM


Happy Friday,

Rates were again pretty flat this week, but ended up a fraction higher. Next week is a holiday-shortened week with the markets closed Monday for the Labor Day weekend (no early close today). The rest of the week brings us plenty of economic data, including a couple of major reports.*

We offer Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo and regular construction financing. Some of our niches include: FHA and VA 1x Close Construction-Perm; 1% Down Conventional Program; 1.50% Down FHA Advantage Program; CHFA Financing; Down Payment Protection program; HomeStyle renovation program; and a jumbo, 5% down program. We also can do hobby farms, Ag properties and Alt-A (stated income, verified assets for self-employed borrowers)! To see a detailed list of programs, visit our website:  www.hlmcolorado.com/mortgageprograms

As always, please let me know if I can help you/friends/family/potential buyers/borrowers!
                   

Last Updated: 8/31/18

Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory even though today's only relevant economic data showed stronger than expected results. Stocks are showing minor gains of 12 points in the Dow and 24 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 4/32 (2.84%), which should improve this morning's mortgage rates slightly if comparing to Thursday's early pricing.

The University of Michigan released their revised Index of Consumer Sentiment for August at 10:00 AM ET, revealing a reading of 96.2. This was an increase from the preliminary reading two weeks ago of 95.3 and higher than the 95.5 that was expected. The stronger reading indicates surveyed consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations this month than previously thought. That is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because rising sentiment usually translates into stronger levels of consumer spending that fuels economic growth. Fortunately, this is only a moderately important report and traders don't seem to be too concerned with its results.

Next week is a holiday-shortened week with the markets closed Monday for the Labor Day weekend (no early close today). The rest of the week brings us plenty of economic data, including a couple of major reports. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....

Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...
Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...
Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...
Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.*

*http://www.hlmcolorado.com/DailyRateAdvisory




LO NMLS: 208694 | CO License: 100008854 | Company NMLS ID: 479289
Regulated by the Colorado Division of Real Estate
www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org
Posted in:General
Posted by T. Fanning on August 31st, 2018 10:43 AM


Hello, I hope you're doing well!

Rates were very flat this week, ending up almost the same as last week. Next week has a small handful of economic reports scheduled, although none are considered to be key releases or potential market-movers. There are also a couple of Treasury auctions that may come into play. Each day as something set that we will be watching except Monday. That leaves weekend news or a big move in stocks to likely drive bond trading and mortgage rates as the new week starts.*

We offer Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo and regular construction financing. Some of our niches include: FHA and VA 1x Close Construction-Perm; 1% Down Conventional Program; 1.50% Down FHA Advantage Program; CHFA Financing; Down Payment Protection program; HomeStyle renovation program; and a jumbo, 5% down program. We also can do hobby farms, Ag properties and Alt-A (stated income, verified assets for self-employed borrowers)! To see a detailed list of programs, visit our website:  www.hlmcolorado.com/mortgageprograms

As always, please let me know if I can help you/friends/family/potential buyers/borrowers!
                   

Last Updated: 8/24/18

Friday's bond market has opened flat despite favorable economic data. Stocks appear to want to close the week on a positive note with the Dow up 85 points and the Nasdaq up 49 points. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (2.82%), which should keep this morning's mortgage rates at Thursday's morning levels.

The Commerce Department gave us July's Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET this morning. They announced a 1.7% decline in new orders for big-ticket products when analysts were expecting to see only a 0.6% decline. That indicated the manufacturing sector was a bit softer than many had thought. The size of the decrease isn't nearly as relevant as it would be in other reports because this data is known to be extremely volatile. That said, a secondary reading that excludes the more volatile transportation orders, such as new airplanes, rose 0.2%. Forecasts were calling for a 0.4% rise in that reading. There is no doubt that this is a favorable report for the bond market and mortgage rates. However, because of the known volatility, it isn't causing as much of a reaction in the markets as other reports would.

This morning's Jackson Hole conference speech by Fed Chairman Powell gave us some interesting tidbits. He states that there is no reason to believe the economy will slow in the near future, but while inflation has risen close to their preferred annual pace of 2.00%, they don't believe it will continue to rise or overheat. Those inflation comments are good news for bonds and mortgage rates. His speech was generally positive about the economy, though inflation friendly. Economic growth isn't necessarily a concern for the bond market. It is the conditions that traditionally accompany economic growth that are concerning, such as rising inflation. Because rising inflation makes a bond's future fixed interest payments less appealing to investors, they tend to suffer when inflation is gaining steam. Today's speech should alleviate some concerns investors had.

Next week has a small handful of economic reports scheduled, although none are considered to be key releases or potential market-movers. There are also a couple of Treasury auctions that may come into play. Each day as something set that we will be watching except Monday. That leaves weekend news or a big move in stocks to likely drive bond trading and mortgage rates as the new week starts. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....

Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...
Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...
Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...
Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.*

*http://www.hlmcolorado.com/DailyRateAdvisory




LO NMLS: 208694 | CO License: 100008854 | Company NMLS ID: 479289
Regulated by the Colorado Division of Real Estate
www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org
Posted in:General
Posted by T. Fanning on August 24th, 2018 1:41 PM


Hi,

Another down week for rates! Let's hope the trend continues! Next week has a couple of relevant economic reports scheduled for release with one being considered important. In addition to the data, we also will get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and the annual Jackson Hole Economic convention. All of the events are scheduled for mid-week and later, so expect the calmer days for mortgage pricing to probably come earlier in the week.*

We offer Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo and regular construction financing. Some of our niches include: FHA and VA 1x Close Construction-Perm; 1% Down Conventional Program; 1.50% Down FHA Advantage Program; CHFA Financing; Down Payment Protection program; HomeStyle renovation program; and a jumbo, 5% down program. We also can do hobby farms, Ag properties and Alt-A (stated income, verified assets for self-employed borrowers)! To see a detailed list of programs, visit our website:  www.hlmcolorado.com/mortgageprograms

As always, please let me know if I can help you/friends/family/potential buyers/borrowers!
                   

Last Updated: 8/17/18

Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory following mixed economic data and soft opening in stocks. The major stock indexes are showing early losses of 18 points in the Dow and 43 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (2.85%), which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by slightly less than .125 of a discount point.

There were two mortgage rate-relevant economic reports posted late this morning. The Conference Board announced a 0.6% rise in their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for July. This was slightly higher than the 0.5% that was expected, but not enough of a variance to cause much concern. The index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months, so they are pointing towards moderate growth this fall. By theory, that is unfavorable news for mortgage rates since it hints at economic growth. However, because it was a small miss from forecasts and the report isn't considered to be an upper tier release, we have not seen a reaction to the news.

The second release of the morning was the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for August. It came in at 95.3, falling well short of the 97.8 that was forecasted. This is good news for bonds and rates because the weaker sentiment reading indicates consumers are less optimistic about their own financial and employment situations than they were last month. Because declining confidence usually means consumers are less likely to spend, the data is good news for mortgage shoppers.

Next week has a couple of relevant economic reports scheduled for release with one being considered important. In addition to the data, we also will get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and the annual Jackson Hole Economic convention. All of the events are scheduled for mid-week and later, so expect the calmer days for mortgage pricing to probably come earlier in the week. Look for details on next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....

Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...
Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...
Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...
Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.*

*http://www.hlmcolorado.com/DailyRateAdvisory




LO NMLS: 208694 | CO License: 100008854 | Company NMLS ID: 479289
Regulated by the Colorado Division of Real Estate
Posted in:General
Posted by T. Fanning on August 17th, 2018 12:03 PM

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