The Home Loan Mortgage Blog



Hi, I hope you and your family are staying safe!

The roller coaster ride continues. Programs are being suspended and guidelines are tightening. Conventional, conforming loans and government loan interest rates had a significant decrease; ARM's and Jumbo loan interest rates saw a significant increase. 
Next week has a handful of economic releases that are normally relevant to mortgage rates in addition to a couple of potentially influential Treasury auctions. One or two of the reports stand out as more important than the others, but because they still cover February, they likely will not be of much interest to the markets. There is no reason to believe that the crazy volatility we have seen this week will cease next week. It is highly likely that the markets won't be interested in economic data until it starts to cover the months of March and April.*

We offer Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo and regular construction financing. Some of our niches include: Chenoa Fund loans; FHA and VA 1x Close Construction-Perm; 1% Down Conventional Program; 1.50% Down FHA Advantage Program; CHFA Financing; Down Payment Protection program; HomeStyle renovation program; and a jumbo, 5% down program. We also can do hobby farms, Ag properties and Alt-A (stated income, verified assets for self-employed borrowers)! To see a detailed list of programs, visit our website:  www.hlmcolorado.com/mortgageprograms

As always, please let me know if I can help you/friends/family/potential buyers/borrowers!                

Last Updated: 3/27/20

Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory with stocks showing heavy losses. After three days of gains, the Dow is currently down 862 points while the Nasdaq has lost 270 points. The bond market is currently up 30/32 (0.75%), which with yesterday's steady improvements throughout the day, should allow this morning rates to be noticeably lower than yesterday's early pricing.

Yesterday's 7-year Treasury Note auction went even better than Wednesday's 5-year Note sale. Investor demand was strong enough to see a positive move in bonds after results were posted at 1:00 PM ET. The auction itself wasn't to source of yesterday's late strength but did contribute to the afternoon gains in bonds.

February's Personal Income and Outlays report was posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning, revealing a 0.6% rise in the income reading while spending rose 0.2%. The rise in income exceeded expectations and the spending increase pegged forecasts. The report indicates consumers had more money to spend than thought but didn't spend more. Results of the report are neutral-slightly negative for mortgage rates. However, since it covered February, we have seen no reaction to the news.

The second report of the day was the revised University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for March. It came in at 89.1, down greatly from the preliminary reading of 95.9 just two weeks ago. This was widely expected due to concerns about the coronavirus and its impact on future income. The large decline is good news because it means consumers are less likely to spend since they are worried about their jobs during this crisis. But the reading fell within the large range of forecasts. Since it did not come as a surprise, we are seeing little reaction to the release.

Next week brings us the release of a good number of economic reports that traditionally influence mortgage rates, including a couple of extremely important releases. More importantly, those highly relevant releases will cover March, giving us insight into how bad the early stages of the coronavirus shutdown were affecting the economy. Over the past couple of weeks, the markets have ignored the monthly and quarterly reports because they covered periods that predated the full-blown virus reaction in the U.S. The upcoming reports will start to reflect how bad the economy is being hit during the crisis.

The most important releases will come mid and late week and there is nothing of relevance set for Monday. We can also expect to see the same influences carry into next week (stock volatility, Fed buying of Treasuries and mortgage bonds, lender pipeline control, etc) that have heavily impacted rates recently. We are set up for the same scenario as recent weeks, only with economic data also coming into play. Look for details on next week's calendar in Sunday evening's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....

Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...
Float if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...
Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...
Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.*

*http://www.hlmcolorado.com/DailyRateAdvisory




LO NMLS: 208694 | CO License: 100008854 | Company NMLS ID: 479289
Regulated by the Colorado Division of Real Estate
www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org
Posted in:General
Posted by T. Fanning on March 27th, 2020 2:21 PM


Hello all - please continue to stay safe!

Volatile is the best word to describe the stock market and mortgage rates. This week's numbers ended up a little higher from last Friday's numbers.
 Next week has a handful of economic releases that are normally relevant to mortgage rates in addition to a couple of potentially influential Treasury auctions. One or two of the reports stand out as more important than the others, but because they still cover February, they likely will not be of much interest to the markets. There is no reason to believe that the crazy volatility we have seen this week will cease next week. It is highly likely that the markets won't be interested in economic data until it starts to cover the months of March and April.*

We offer Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo and regular construction financing. Some of our niches include: Chenoa Fund loans; FHA and VA 1x Close Construction-Perm; 1% Down Conventional Program; 1.50% Down FHA Advantage Program; CHFA Financing; Down Payment Protection program; HomeStyle renovation program; and a jumbo, 5% down program. We also can do hobby farms, Ag properties and Alt-A (stated income, verified assets for self-employed borrowers)! To see a detailed list of programs, visit our website:  www.hlmcolorado.com/mortgageprograms

As always, please let me know if I can help you/friends/family/potential buyers/borrowers!                

Last Updated: 3/20/20

Friday's bond market has opened well in positive territory again but will be of no help to mortgage rates. The major stock indexes are in positive territory at the moment, with the Dow up 58 points and the Nasdaq up 64 points. The bond market is currently up 42/32 (1.02%), but mortgage bonds are having an ugly morning. Despite the strong gains in Treasuries and modest improvement in stocks (considering the recent volatility), we still will see a sizable increase in this morning's mortgage rates. Mortgage bonds and Treasuries have not reconnected yet, bucking the traditional trend of moving in the same direction.

The National Association of Realtors announced late this morning that home resales rose 6.5% last month, exceeding forecasts. That is a sign that the housing sector was stronger than many had thought, making the data unfavorable for bonds and mortgage rates. However, the data is not important enough to draw much attention during this chaotic environment in the markets and had no impact on today's rates.

Next week has a handful of economic releases that are normally relevant to mortgage rates in addition to a couple of potentially influential Treasury auctions. One or two of the reports stand out as more important than the others, but because they still cover February, they likely will not be of much interest to the markets. There is no reason to believe that the crazy volatility we have seen this week will cease next week. It is highly likely that the markets won't be interested in economic data until it starts to cover the months of March and April.

Look for details on next week's calendar and this weekend's relevant events in Sunday evening's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....

Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...
Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...
Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...
Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.*

*http://www.hlmcolorado.com/DailyRateAdvisory




LO NMLS: 208694 | CO License: 100008854 | Company NMLS ID: 479289
Regulated by the Colorado Division of Real Estate
www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org
Posted in:General
Posted by T. Fanning on March 20th, 2020 11:19 AM


Please stay safe out there!

We are in uncharted territory. The 10-year Treasury (which rates typically follow) is near an all-time low. Due to the VERY high demand of refinances, lenders have increased rates to slow volume. In addition, MBS prices and early payoffs of mortgages have pushed rates higher. Next week brings us several economic reports, including the highly important Retail Sales data that tracks consumer spending. There also is the extremely anticipated FOMC meeting when Chairman Powell and friends will try to stabilize the markets and limit the coronavirus impact on our economy. It will be another interesting week for the markets and mortgage rates. Monday has nothing relevant scheduled, so expect weekend news to driving trading.*

We offer Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo and regular construction financing. Some of our niches include: Chenoa Fund loans; FHA and VA 1x Close Construction-Perm; 1% Down Conventional Program; 1.50% Down FHA Advantage Program; CHFA Financing; Down Payment Protection program; HomeStyle renovation program; and a jumbo, 5% down program. We also can do hobby farms, Ag properties and Alt-A (stated income, verified assets for self-employed borrowers)! To see a detailed list of programs, visit our website:  www.hlmcolorado.com/mortgageprograms

As always, please let me know if I can help you/friends/family/potential buyers/borrowers!                

Last Updated: 3/13/20

Friday's bond market is following suit of the past two weeks, with plenty of volatility. It is well in negative territory at the moment, which isn't a surprise considering stocks are showing gains (for the time being). The Dow is currently up 643 points while the Nasdaq has gained 265 points. The bond market has had a wide trading range this morning but is currently down 23/32. That, along with yesterday afternoon's selling, should cause this morning's mortgage rates to be approximately .375 - .500 of a discount point higher than Thursday's early pricing. There again was plenty of afternoon revisions to mortgage pricing during afternoon trading yesterday, meaning just how much of a revision you will see in today's pricing depends on the size of yesterday's intraday change.

The Fed announced an expansion in the current bond buying program early afternoon yesterday. This was unexpected with the regularly scheduled FOMC meeting set for next week. The bond market initially responded heavily in a favorable move for rates. The size of the move was quite surprising and gave hope of finally seeing a change in direction for rates that have been moving higher. Unfortunately, it was short lived and mortgage bonds went into selling mode soon after, leading to upward revisions to rates before the end of the day.

The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for March was posted at 10:00 AM ET this morning. It came in at 95.9, falling a little short of expectations and well below February's 101.0. The decline means surveyed consumers felt less confident about their own financial situations and, therefore, less likely to make a large purchase in the near future. That makes the data favorable for bonds and mortgage rates, but as we have seen recently, the markets don't seem to be interested in data right now.

Next week brings us several economic reports, including the highly important Retail Sales data that tracks consumer spending. There also is the extremely anticipated FOMC meeting when Chairman Powell and friends will try to stabilize the markets and limit the coronavirus impact on our economy. It will be another interesting week for the markets and mortgage rates. Monday has nothing relevant scheduled, so expect weekend news to driving trading. Look for details on next week's calendar and other potential events in Sunday evening's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....

Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...
Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...
Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...
Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.*

*http://www.hlmcolorado.com/DailyRateAdvisory




LO NMLS: 208694 | CO License: 100008854 | Company NMLS ID: 479289
Regulated by the Colorado Division of Real Estate
www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org
Posted in:General
Posted by T. Fanning on March 13th, 2020 2:10 PM


Hi, I hope you've had good week.

It was an extremely bumpy week for rates. Overall, rates ended up mixed versus last Friday's numbers. Next week has a handful of reports scheduled, but they come mid and late week. The most important ones are monthly inflation indexes. News on the coronavirus this weekend will play heavily on the markets next week also. However, at some point we will likely see bond yields bounce higher and mortgage rates move higher. It may not start Monday and may not be from current levels, but it could be sooner than some people may think. Accordingly, it would be prudent to proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate. *

We offer Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo and regular construction financing. Some of our niches include: Chenoa Fund loans; FHA and VA 1x Close Construction-Perm; 1% Down Conventional Program; 1.50% Down FHA Advantage Program; CHFA Financing; Down Payment Protection program; HomeStyle renovation program; and a jumbo, 5% down program. We also can do hobby farms, Ag properties and Alt-A (stated income, verified assets for self-employed borrowers)! To see a detailed list of programs, visit our website:  www.hlmcolorado.com/mortgageprograms

As always, please let me know if I can help you/friends/family/potential buyers/borrowers!                

Last Updated: 3/6/20

Friday's bond market has opened significantly higher as more concerns about the coronavirus and its impact on the global economy drive trading. Despite a strong Employment report, stocks are tanking again with the Dow down 490 points and the Nasdaq down 169 points. The bond market is currently up 45/32 (0.77%), but weakness late yesterday is going to limit this morning's improvement in rates to approximately .125 of a discount point from Thursday's early pricing. If you saw an upward revision to pricing yesterday afternoon, you should see more of an improvement in this morning's rates.

It is not apparent by this morning's stock selling and bond rally, but we did have a major economic release that showed results that traditionally would favor stocks and cause bonds to sell. Obviously, traders are much more interested in the virus and the global economy at the moment than any economic data. As the number of coronavirus cases and deaths spread, along with the fact there is no known vaccine yet, investors are concerned the worst is yet to come. As stock holdings are sold, funds are being moved into bonds as a safe haven. That has pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield down to levels few thought we would ever see and mortgage rates to record lows. Rates have lagged behind Treasuries in this downward spiral but are still trending lower fairly quickly.

February's Employment report was today's sole economic release. It revealed that the unemployment rate slipped 0.1% to stand at 3.5% last month while 273,000 new jobs were added to the economy. The unemployment rate was expected to hold at 3.6% with new jobs totaling 170,000. In addition to February's job count, today's report showed upward revisions to January and December's payroll numbers totaling 85.000. Those figures put the average three-month payroll count to a fairly healthy 243,000 new jobs per month. Average earnings rose 0.3%, matching expectations.

Overall, today's Employment report was bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. Had it not been for the coronavirus situation we likely would have seen a strong negative reaction in bonds and a stock rally. Fortunately, stocks were tanking and bonds were rallying during overnight trading, preventing the markets from having much a reaction to this report. It is worth noting though- the coverage period of this release ended just as the coronavirus was becoming the focus of the markets. Next month's release will give a better indication if the employment sector was going to be affected also.

Next week has a handful of reports scheduled, but they come mid and late week. The most important ones are monthly inflation indexes. News on the coronavirus this weekend will play heavily on the markets next week also. However, at some point we will likely see bond yields bounce higher and mortgage rates move higher. It may not start Monday and may not be from current levels, but it could be sooner than some people may think. Accordingly, it would be prudent to proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate. Look for details on next week's calendar in Sunday evening's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....

Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...
Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...
Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...
Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.*

*http://www.hlmcolorado.com/DailyRateAdvisory




LO NMLS: 208694 | CO License: 100008854 | Company NMLS ID: 479289
Regulated by the Colorado Division of Real Estate
www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org
Posted in:General
Posted by T. Fanning on March 6th, 2020 11:43 AM


Happy Friday,

Rates were down again this week, due to fears of the coronavirus spreading. Next week doesn't have a large number of economic reports set for release, but a couple of them are considered to be extremely important to the markets. None of the reports are set for Monday. As we have seen this week though, economic data isn't always the focus of the markets. Weekend news, specifically news related to the coronavirus crisis, can also heavily influence the financial and mortgage markets.*

We offer Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo and regular construction financing. Some of our niches include: Chenoa Fund loans; FHA and VA 1x Close Construction-Perm; 1% Down Conventional Program; 1.50% Down FHA Advantage Program; CHFA Financing; Down Payment Protection program; HomeStyle renovation program; and a jumbo, 5% down program. We also can do hobby farms, Ag properties and Alt-A (stated income, verified assets for self-employed borrowers)! To see a detailed list of programs, visit our website:  www.hlmcolorado.com/mortgageprograms

As always, please let me know if I can help you/friends/family/potential buyers/borrowers!                

Last Updated: 2/28/20

Friday's bond market has opened sharply higher again as more coronavirus concerns fuel another major stock sell-off. The Dow is currently down 842 points following yesterday's drop of almost 1200 points that was the largest single day decline ever. The Nasdaq has lost 203 points during early trading also. The bond market is currently up 30/32 (1.17%), which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point from Thursday's early pricing.

This morning's first economic release was January's Personal Income and Outlays report at 8:30 AM ET. It revealed that personal income rose 0.6% while spending Rose only 0.2%. The income reading was higher than expectations of up 0.4% and spending came in slightly lower than expectations. The larger than expected increase in income is bad news, but the fact that consumers actually spent less than thought is good news for bonds and mortgage rates. Therefore, we can consider the report's mixed or neutral for mortgage rates.

The University of Michigan's revision to their Index of Consumer Sentiment for February was posted at 10:00 AM ET, revealing a 101.0 reading. That was nearly unchanged from the initial reading of 100.9, meaning surveyed consumers were just as optimistic about their own financial situations than estimated earlier this month. Good news for rates would have been a softer reading.

Even though this morning's data gave us mixed results, the fact is that the data was not going to have a role in the markets this morning. Once the overnight losses in stocks and bond gains picked up momentum, the data became irrelevant to today's trading. The fear of what impact the coronavirus is going to have on the global economy is the sole force behind today's volatility. Major stock indexes were setting record highs last week, but this week is their worst since the financial meltdown in 2008. Some analysts are predicting that central bankers (Federal Reserve here in the U.S.) will need to start taking action to offset the impact the crisis is going to have on the global economy and to help settle the financial markets.

How low will stocks and bond yields go? There is no way to know. We are setting a new record low again today in the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield. While yields have dropped considerably, mortgage rates have not moved as quickly. That is because even though rates do track bond yields in direction, they often move at a slower pace than government securities. Rates are actually priced off of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are more complex securities than the 10-year Treasury Note that we quote here. Treasury yields are also more accessible to the general public. The good news is that when yields tend to track upward, mortgage rates often lag behind then also. It will be interesting to see what the immediate future brings for the markets and mortgage pricing, but it is safe to say that the volatility is not over yet, especially as we get more and more news of the virus spreading.

Next week doesn't have a large number of economic reports set for release, but a couple of them are considered to be extremely important to the markets. None of the reports are set for Monday. As we have seen this week though, economic data isn't always the focus of the markets. Weekend news, specifically news related to the coronavirus crisis, can also heavily influence the financial and mortgage markets.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....

Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...
Float if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...
Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...
Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.*

*http://www.hlmcolorado.com/DailyRateAdvisory




LO NMLS: 208694 | CO License: 100008854 | Company NMLS ID: 479289
Regulated by the Colorado Division of Real Estate
www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org
Posted in:General
Posted by T. Fanning on February 28th, 2020 9:15 AM

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