November 21st, 2025 1:27 PM by T. Fanning
Hello! I hope you’re having a good week and have a great Thanksgiving!
The job market surprised by adding far more jobs than expected, but at the same time the unemployment rate ticked up — showing a weird mix of strength and softness. Mortgage rates nudged up this week, and this kind of mixed data doesn’t make things any clearer. Solid job growth suggests the economy is still strong (which usually keeps rates elevated), while the rise in unemployment hints that there might be room for rates to ease. When the Fed meets, they’ll be balancing these two stories — wanting to support the softer signals without cutting rates too soon because hiring is still strong — which means mortgage rates may stay a bit uncertain until we get clearer direction.
Next week is loaded with economic reports that could move mortgage rates, including some that were delayed by the government shutdown. Monday has nothing major scheduled, so any rate changes would likely come from weekend news or stock market swings. We’ll get some older reports, like September’s inflation and retail data, plus fresher updates the Fed watches closely. It’s also a short week, with markets closed Thursday and closing early Friday.
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