June 28th, 2019 8:47 AM by T. Fanning
Last Updated: 6/28/19Friday's bond market has opened up slightly despite unfavorable economic news. Stocks are showing minor gains of 31 points in the Dow and 5 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 1/32 (2.01%), but strength late yesterday should help improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately.125 of a discount point if comparing to Thursday's early pricing.Yesterday's 7-year Treasury Note auction went better than Wednesday's 5-year Note sale, but not overwhelmingly strong. Most of the benchmarks we use to gauge investor demand in the securities showed above average interest. Bonds improved slightly after results were posted. Although, this news didn't play much of a role in yesterday's late bond gains.The first of this morning's two relevant economic reports was May's Personal Income and Outlays data at 8:30 AM ET. It revealed a 0.5% increase in income while spending rose 0.4%. The income reading was higher than the 0.3% that was expected while spending pegged forecasts. The core inflation reading within the report that the Fed relies on showed a bit larger increase than predicted. Rising income means consumers have more money to spend while stronger levels of inflation make bonds less attractive to investors and the Fed more aggressive with key short-term interest rates. Therefore, we should consider the data slightly negative news for bonds and mortgage rates.Released late this morning was the University of Michigan's revised Index of Consumer Sentiment for June. It came in at 98.2, up from the preliminary reading of 97.9 two weeks ago. The upward revision means that surveyed consumers felt better about their own financial situations than previously thought. Because rising confidence means consumers are more apt to make a large purchase in the near future that fuels economic growth, the increase was unwelcomed news. But, since this was a small revision in a moderately important report, we haven't seen much of a reaction to the data.We are also watching for news from the G20 Summit that is in process now. Of particular interest is trade-related news with China. If a trade deal is reached during the summit, we will likely see an upward move in bond yields and mortgage rates. If President Trump and China's President Xi are unable to reach an agreement, bonds should improve enough to lower mortgage rates. This will likely be weekend news that will come into play Monday morning though.Next week doesn't have a large number of economic reports scheduled for release, but most of what is set is considered important or extremely important. It will be a holiday-shortened week due to the Independence Day holiday Thursday. Monday morning brings us a very important release with the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index. This will be the second most important release of the week. Look for details on all of next week's calendar in Sunday evening's weekly preview.If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...Lock if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.**http://www.hlmcolorado.com/DailyRateAdvisory
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