November 1st, 2019 7:01 PM by T. Fanning
Last Updated: 11/1/19
bond market initially opened in positive territory before moving into
negative ground after the employment data was posted. Stocks are
rallying on the news with the Dow up 239 points and the Nasdaq up 75
points. The bond market is currently down 7/32 (1.71%), but strength
late yesterday should help keep this morning's mortgage rates slightly
lower than Thursday's early pricing. If you saw an intraday improvement
late yesterday, then you may see a slight increase this morning.
October's Employment report was the
first of this morning's two major economic releases. It gave us mixed
results about the employment sector, showing that the economy added
128,000 new jobs while September and August's numbers were revised
higher to add 95,000 more jobs year to date than previously thought.
That was the bad news. The favorable data came from the unemployment
rate that inched higher to 3.6% and average hourly earnings that rose
0.2% even though they were expected to do so. While these readings show
some strength and weakness in the employment sector, it is the payroll
number that is drawing the most attention.
The Institute for Supply Management's
(ISM) October manufacturing index was posted late this morning. This
highly important index measures manufacturer sentiment. They announced a
reading of 48.3 for October that was a little below forecasts and a
small increase from September's 47.8. This means that surveyed
manufacturers felt slightly better about business conditions than they
did in September but not as good as many analysts had expected.
Furthermore, another month below the threshold of 50.0 is also good news
for mortgage rates. Unfortunately, this was not enough of a variance to
offset the impact of the headline payroll number that traders are
dwelling on. That has prevented a stronger reaction to the ISM news.
Next week brings us a handful of
moderately important economic reports in addition to a couple of
Treasury auctions that tend to be influential on mortgage rates. Monday
does have one of those reports with the release of September's Factory
Orders. Look for details on all of next week's scheduled events in
Sunday evening's weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...
Float if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...
Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...
Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
This is only my opinion of what I would
do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be
guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.*
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