January 5th, 2018 1:51 PM by T. Fanning
Last Updated: 1/5/18Friday's bond market has opened down slightly despite favorable results in this morning's key economic data. Stocks are not helping bonds, posting gains even though the data should have caused a negative reaction. The Dow is currently up 55 points while the Nasdaq has gained 32 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32 (2.46%), which should keep this morning's mortgage rates very close to yesterday's early pricing.Today's big news was December's Employment report that was posted at 8:30 AM ET. It showed that the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% last month while 148,000 new jobs were added to the economy. Forecasts were calling for 4.0% and 190,000 respectively, meaning we can consider both favorable for bonds and mortgage rates. The miss in the payroll number underscores the undeserved credence the ADP report is sometimes given. It showed 250,000 new private sector jobs yesterday, causing a negative reaction in bonds, while today's government report showed only 146,000 private sector additions.The third reading worth discussing was the average hourly earnings increase of 0.3%. This reading has been watched closely lately as market participants and Fed members look for signs that inflation is going to rise. Good news for bonds and mortgage rates would have been a smaller increase, but since it pegged expectations we can consider the news neutral for mortgage rates.Also released this morning, but at 10:00 AM ET, was November's Factory Orders data. The Commerce Department announced a 1.3% rise in new orders for durable and non-durable goods. This was close to the 1.4% increase that was expected, allowing us to consider the data neutral for bonds and mortgage pricing.Next week brings us the release of only a few economic reports that will affect mortgage rates, but they are all considered to be important. In addition to the data there are a couple of Treasury auctions that we will be watching. There is nothing of importance scheduled for Monday or Tuesday, so we should see the most movement in rates the latter days. Look for details on all of the week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...Lock if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.**http://www.hlmcolorado.com/DailyRateAdvisory
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