April 7th, 2023 12:11 PM by T. Fanning
Happy Good Friday – I hope you have a great Easter!
Rates ended the week mixed with only minor changes. Next week has plenty scheduled that is expected to influence bond trading and mortgage pricing. Examples of items on the calendar include two highly important inflation readings, a key consumer spending report and the minutes from last month's FOMC meeting. There are also a couple of Treasury auctions set that could come into play during afternoon trading. Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is meeting next week, possibly yielding relevant news on a global scale any day. The most important events look to be scheduled midweek, meaning we could see the most movement in rates those days.*
We offer Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo and regular construction financing. Some of our niches include: Chenoa Fund loans (100% FHA financing); Conventional, FHA and VA 1x Close Construction-Perm; 1.50% Down FHA Advantage Program; CHFA Financing; HomeStyle renovation program; and a Jumbo, 5% down program. We can also do non-traditional programs! To see a detailed list of programs, visit our website: www.homeloanmortgageco.com/mortgageprograms
Last Updated: 4/7/23
Friday's bond market has opened well in negative territory (down 19/32) following the release of this morning's sole economic report. This, along with yesterday's afternoon weakness, should cause an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point.
This morning's major economic release was March's monthly Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. It revealed the U.S. unemployment rate slipped 0.1% to 3.5% while 236,000 new jobs were added to the economy. Forecasts called for 3.6% unemployment and 240,000 new payrolls. The lower unemployment rate can be labeled slightly negative for rates, but the opposite can be said about the payroll number that fell a little short of expectations. The so-called tiebreaker, monthly average earnings change, pegged predictions at up 0.3%. On a year over year basis, the earnings reading came in a little lower than though (favorable news).
Today's report failed to give us any significant surprises. If you are looking for good news for the economy in it, there is a tad in there. If you would like to see bad news that should lower mortgage pricing, it is there also. Therefore, there is no clear reason as to why the bond market reacted negatively to the report. It could be a situation where traders are capturing profits from this week's rally since there was no overwhelmingly good news in the data to extend it. Nevertheless, it is leaving many of us scratching our heads at the moment. A lackluster response to the report would have made much more sense this morning.
The stock markets are closed today for Good Friday, but the bond market is open until 2:00 PM ET. All the markets will reopen for regular trading Monday morning.
Next week has plenty scheduled that is expected to influence bond trading and mortgage pricing. Examples of items on the calendar include two highly important inflation readings, a key consumer spending report and the minutes from last month's FOMC meeting. There are also a couple of Treasury auctions set that could come into play during afternoon trading. Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is meeting next week, possibly yielding relevant news on a global scale any day. The most important events look to be scheduled midweek, meaning we could see the most movement in rates those days. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.*
*https://www.homeloanmortgageco.com/DailyRateLockAdvisory
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