May 8th, 2020 1:04 PM by T. Fanning
Last Updated: 5/8/20Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory following mixed results in today's major economic release. Stocks are showing early strength, extending overnight gains to push the Dow higher by 330 points while the Nasdaq is up 100 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32 (0.66%), but strength late yesterday should improve this morning's mortgage rates slightly.Today's big economic news was April's Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. It showed that 20.5 million jobs were lost last month, pushing the unemployment rate up to 14.7%. The number of lost jobs was the single worst month on record but was not as bad as some analysts were expecting to see. Today's report also showed that March's decline in jobs was revised from 701,000 to down 870,000, meaning that month was worse than previously thought.The unemployment rate was the worst since the Great Depression era in the 1930's, even exceeding the highest rate during the financial meltdown of 2008-2009. Making matters more interesting is a note within the report that indicates surveyed households likely did not accurately report their employment status due to confusion about being temporarily at home and that if they had done so, the unemployment rate would likely have been 5% higher than the announced rate.Overall, this morning's report paints a grim situation in the employment sector. Since the report compiles data from the week the 12th falls in each month, which is next week for May's report, it is likely to be ugly also even though states are starting to partially reopen for business. While the numbers are a bit shocking, they didn't come as a complete surprise to the markets. Since bad news was built in already, we are not seeing a significant reaction in this morning's early trading. Stocks were showing gains long before the report was posted this morning.Next week brings us a handful of relevant economic releases in addition to a couple of Treasury auctions that have been known to influence rates. The first two releases of the week are normally important inflation readings (PPI and CPI), but the markets aren't too concerned about inflation at the moment. What will likely draw plenty of interest is the Retail Sales report late next week that tracks consumer spending. Monday has nothing of importance scheduled for release. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.**http://www.hlmcolorado.com/DailyRateAdvisory
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