January 8th, 2021 2:39 PM by T. Fanning
Last Updated: 1/8/21Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory again following mixed results in this morning's key economic report. Stocks are in positive ground with the Dow up 39 points and the Nasdaq up 118 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32 (1.09%), which should push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point if comparing to Thursday's early pricing. Today's big economic news came from December's Employment report. It showed the unemployment rate held steady at 6.7% but that 140,000 jobs were lost during the month when analysts were expecting to see an increase of 80,000. The payroll number supports the theory that the employment sector recovery has lost momentum and is still in serious trouble. Because this is a sign of significant economic weakness, we can consider the data very good news for bonds and mortgage rates even though there was a sizable upward revision to November's payroll number. However, it also should add fuel to the campaign for another stimulus package from Congress that could hurt bonds in the long run. Average hourly earnings is the third headline number that we address from this report. It revealed that earnings jumped 0.8% last month, greatly exceeding expectations. Rapidly rising wages is an inflationary concern that makes bonds less appealing to investors. Accordingly, we should label this reading as bad news for mortgage rates. Overall, we got some good and some bad from this morning's report. Bonds were weaker during overnight and early morning trading before recovering those losses immediately after the report was released. Unfortunately, it was short-lived, and we again find ourselves with bond losses and slightly higher mortgage rates this morning. Next week brings us the release of a few important economic releases including two inflation indexes and a highly relevant consumer spending report. In addition to the data, there are also a couple of Treasury auctions that have the potential to affect mortgage rates midweek. There is nothing that we need to be concerned about scheduled for Monday and the first important economic data comes Wednesday. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview. If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.**http://www.hlmcolorado.com/DailyRateAdvisory
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